Kenya Camps cannot cope with Somali refugee influx

Here is the reality of the new Somalia under the Islamists. These new refugees are Somali's that the Islamists have driven out of Somali. The Islamists claim they are unifying Somalia, but instead they are creating a false reality by driving away those not from their clan, and those that disagree with their fundamentalist form of Islam.
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NAIROBI, 26 October (IRIN) - The three refugee camps in Daadab in Kenya's Northeastern Province do not have the facilities to cater for the influx of refugees from Somalia, an official of the United Nations refugee agency said on Thursday."

Ideally, the Daadab camps should accommodate 60,000 people but at the moment there are 160,000," Eddie Gedalof, the UNHCR representative in Kenya, said in Nairobi."The camp is crowded, with a family of 10 sharing a single tarpaulin tent," Baarlin Abukar, a UNHCR field assistant based in Daadab added.

The UN launched a flash appeal on Thursday in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, for Somali refugees in Kenya. "There is also a water shortage - among other challenges facing the refugees," Abukar said.According to the six-month flash appeal, at least US $32 million is urgently required to provide humanitarian aid for the refugee population, with food, healthcare, nutrition, water and security the top priorities.

New arrivals have overstretched the camps' capacity, contributing to the negative environmental impact on neighbouring communities, Gedalof said. "The majority of the people are also faced with malnutrition," he added.The latest influx follows the unpredictable political situation in Somalia after territorial gains made by the Union of Islamic Courts and the precarious position of the Transitional Federal Government in Baidoa.

The impact of drought and destitution in the country was also contributing to the influx, with refugees coming from the southern areas of Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo, Gedalof said. The permanent secretary in Kenya's Ministry of Immigration and Registration of Persons, Emmanuel Kisombe, said Kenya was willing to accommodate the refugees but falling support was a burden for host countries."

There is a need for a supportive and predictable international response to the refugee problem," Kisombe said.However, he said, resolving the root cause of conflict in the refugees' home countries was the only sustainable solution. At least 32,000 new arrivals have been registered in Daadab this year, with an average of 100 refugees being registered each day between January and August. The number surged to an average of 1,000 refugees each day on 4 and 5 October.

Baidao will fall soon and we don’t recognize the UN – Hassan Turki

The ICU leadership is throwing caution to the wind, making bold declarations and dangerous pronouncements. Their arrogance is blatant, and the world is standing by with their hands in their pockets. The following article underlies the ICU's grand plan to take over all of Somalia:
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Tue. October 24, 2006

(SomaliNet) Number-two leader of the Islamic Courts Mr. Hassan Turki announced his organization’s immediate intention to chase President Abdulahi Yusuf and his powerless government out of Baydhabo in the coming days. In a telephone interview with Horn Afrik radio in Mogadishu, he said the southern part of the country is in our hands and we are going to Burao (in Somaliland) and Galkaio (in Puntland).

Mr. Turki who is now in a small town near Kenyan border said we don’t recognize the United Nations as it has become American interest group. When asked if the Islamic Courts are worrying about possible external intervention such as African Union troops, he replied with “We have enough power to defeat anyone”.

Sheik Turki also talked about his view on the US and accused America of labeling Muslim people as terrorists. He was equally critical on the United Nations whose agencies he said are corrupt and lie about Somali refugees in Kenya. "They repatriate Somali refugees back to Somalia and return them back into Kenya only to open new accounts and misuse more money by claiming more influx of refugees. United Nations is a corrupt organization." He said.

In a confident tone, Mr. Turki promised to bring all Somalia under his organization’s rule and declared war on self declared Somaliland and semi-autonomous Puntland.

The Islamic Courts seem to be unstoppable and the neighboring countries are unease about Somalia’s current situation. Ethiopia and Eritrea are both accused of meddling with Somalia civil war although no concrete prove has been presented on the Eritrean side.

Somaliland and Puntland administrations have amble time prepare themselves for possible showdown with the Islamists as tehir hands are now full with the federal government and other foes in the south.

Both Sheik Hassan Turki and his boss, Sheik Aweys are on international terrorist list by the US State

Somalia: Why Islamic Courts Can't Win War Against Govt

Here is a very interesting piece about how the ICU's militias have spread themselves too far apart to survive a real fight.

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Unless the next round of talks between the Union of Islamist Courts (UIC) of Somalia and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) - scheduled for October 30 in Khartoum - builds on the uneasy calm that the feuding groups maintained during Ramadan, it will not achieve much.

Talks between the rivals on September 2 ended in a stalemate after the Transitional Government accused the Islamic Courts of having links with the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation; in turn, the Islamists accused the Transitional Government of being a stooge of the Ethiopian government.

For many Somalis, it was enough that the two sides deliberately avoided squabbling war in the holy month of Ramadan, which ends this week.

But if there is no breakthrough in the third round of talks, war seems inevitable.

The reality of Somalia's landscape, however, makes taking over the country a harder proposition than either party and their allies believe.

The Islamists opted to range far and wide in order to gain territorial control in most of the southern and central regions.

The militias flanks are thus located at Galinsor district, about 650 km north of Mogadishu, and around Afmadow district, about 680 km south of the capital. To defend such a huge front in a war would be a daunting task.

That the Transitional Government is relying on Ethiopian support and its base in Baidoa is well protected, is no secret. The town is in the middle of the Gedo and Bakol regions, both bordering Ethiopia. Strategists believe that Baidoa is thus in no danger.

The forces of the Islamic Courts in the central regions are in the most vulnerable position. They are over 600 km from Mogadishu - the Islamic Courts' stronghold - but only 100 km away from Ethiopia, where heavily armed battalions are eyeing them from across the border.

Any supplies or reinforcement from Mogadishu can be intercepted if the highway through Hiran region were seized, which Ethiopian forces could do in matter of hours.

If Ethiopian troops in Baidoa moved just 120 km towards Mogadishu, they would threaten the strategic Lower Shabelle, the region shielding the capital from the west and south. Should that happen, supplies to forces in Lower Juba - close to the Kenyan border - will be impossible.

Forces of the Islamic Courts in Lower Juba, especially those in Kismayo - the port town that lies 500 km south of Mogadishu - are facing yet another enemy. The former Juba Valley Alliance (JVA) leader, Barre Hirale, who was chased from the town by Islamists in late September, is said to be gathering militias from Gedo region, which is the power base of his Marehaan kinsmen. The reunited JVA militias are said to be inching towards Kismayo both from the northwest and southwest. If these forces reach Jilib town, on the main Mogadishu-Kismayo road, the so-called Shabab elite forces could be stranded.

According to newspapers in Mogadishu, the Islamic Courts is facing the biggest threat ever since it emerged as a national force in June. Having spread their wings too far, the Islamists' vulnerability was proven at Bandiradley village in July when the forces failed to take Galkayo town upon meeting resistance. Their dreams of capturing the semi-autonomous state of Puntland have also come to nought.

The main highway that traverses the Hiran region to the northwest of Mogadishu appears unprotected. Only a small, ineffective militia at Belet-Weyn town, the region's capital, stands in the way of a whole Ethiopian battalion vigilantly staring across the border.

When the Transitional Government forces recently reached Burhakaba, allegedly supported by Ethiopian troops, the Islamic Courts could not retaliate. Instead of assembling a formidable force, to reassert its authority on the splendid town at the base of Mt Hakaba next to the Mogadishu-Baidoa main road, the Islamists only managed to issue a threat of a jihad.

Many observers believe that the only committed and well-trained armed unit of the Islamic Courts is the Shabab (Arabic for youth), numbering about 2,000. The rest are either conventional militia who in the past served various warlords or new recruits with no experience or even commitment.

If war breaks out, the Islamists will have to defend at least four fronts - Jubaland, the main road linking Mogadishu to Baidoa, the highway that runs through Hiran region in the middle, and the upper central regions, including Galgadud and Mudug.

Residents of Mogadishu will face a compounded problem should the Islamist forces decide to reverse their current expansion strategy and withdraw to the capital. Street fighting may become the order of the day.

Most people believe that Somalia's best interests would lie in a deal struck at the Khartoum talks, especially if the Transitional Government's legitimacy is accepted. An acceptable formula could then be worked out, especially a nationwide demobilisation programme.

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the Islamic Courts' leader, and the Ethiopian army's generals know each other well.

They fought several battles in the 1990s when Sheikh Aweys's turbaned Al-Ittihad men reportedly suffered heavy losses at the hands of the Somali National Front militia in Gedo region in southwestern Somalia.

Ethiopian support tilted the balance in favour of the Front and Al-Ittihad fighters fled Bulo-Hawa, Luq and Dollow districts.

Earlier, in the 1990s, Col Abdulahi Ahmed Yusuf, the current Transitional Government President, was Åhelped by Ethiopia to expel Sheikh Aweys Al-Ittihad fighters from Bossaso, the economic capital and main port town in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland.

The East African (Nairobi)
October 23, 2006
Abdulkadir Khalif

Islamic Court declared near Ethiopia border

ICU Continues its unrestrained and unconfronted expansion: ====================================================== Last Updated: Oct 23rd, 2006 - 00:59:23

BELETWEIN, Somalia Oct 21 (Garowe Online) - A new Islamic Court was declared Saturday in Jawil, a frontier village near the Ethio-Somali border, raising more concerns of a showdown between Somalia’s Islamist movement and the Ethiopian military. The ceremony to mark the opening of the new Islamic Court was attended by Islamist officials, including the chairman of Islamic courts of Hiran region, Sheikh Farah Moallim Mohamud. Ethiopian troops previously crossed into Jawil and other villages in Hiran region, but such frontier villages have recently come under the control of the Somali Islamist militia. Earlier this month, Sheikh Farah Moallim declared jihad on Ethiopian troops at a public rally in Beletwein, capital of Hiran region.